With the rise of Japan's right-wing conservatives to power, their policies include tightening immigration policies, tax cuts, subsidies for low-income groups, proactive fiscal policy, and accommodative monetary policy. These measures will have profound implications for the yen's exchange rate in the medium to long term. Notably, the tightening of immigration policies will drive domestic wage increases, leading to wage inflation, heightened expectations for interest rate hikes, and ultimately yen appreciation.
Recently, the yen has been forming a converging triangle pattern. We are closely monitoring the OIS (Overnight Index Swaps) spread and expect the yen to gradually strengthen over the next one or two quarters.
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